Pharmaceutical cold chain: strong growth momentum, high threshold is good for industry leaders

  Pharmaceutical cold chain is expected to become the strongest sub-category in the future development of cold chain logistics. Drug circulation refers to a series of transportation and storage links that drugs go through from the factory to the medical institution or retail pharmacy.

  According to data from Mi Nei.com, in 2018, the drug sales of the three major terminals of my country's public hospitals, primary medical institutions, and retail pharmacies were 1.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. Cold chain circulation is an important part of drug circulation and the most promising business branch in drug circulation. The medical products that require cold chain transportation include: vaccines, biological products, biological drugs, diagnostic reagents, etc. In 2018, the sales of medicines requiring cold chain transportation in my country were about 110 billion yuan, of which vaccines accounted for the largest proportion at 43%. According to the calculation based on the cost rate of medical cold chain transportation of 12%, the scale of my country's medical cold chain market is about 13 billion yuan (not counting the third-party medical cold chain data). The continued expansion of several major categories of drugs will drive the growth of the pharmaceutical cold chain industry. The industry growth rate in the next few years is expected to be close to 15%, and it is sustainable.

  1) Vaccines: Class II vaccines drive the industry's overall continuous growth

   The scale of my country's human vaccine market is about 45 billion yuan, of which 60% are provided by the government for free, mainly for children. With the decline in the number of newborn babies, the sales volume of the first-class vaccine is expected to fluctuate, but the domestic second-class vaccine has greater room for development. The overall vaccine industry will continue to grow driven by the second-class vaccine, and the industry growth rate is expected to be about 10% in the next few years. The main sources of growth for the second type of vaccine are:

  The proportion of domestic people receiving Class II vaccines is low, and there is a lot of room for growth. For example, only 2% of people in China get the flu vaccine, while the vaccination rate in the US reaches 38%. In addition, HPV 9-valent vaccines and multi-linked vaccines have grown rapidly in recent years, even in short supply.

   The acceleration of the review and approval of the second-class vaccine. In recent years, a large number of Class II vaccines have been marketed in China, and many blockbuster varieties are still in the application process. After the market is launched, the vaccine industry will accelerate growth.

  2) Blood products: The terminal promotion space is large, and blood products continue to grow

   The main varieties of blood products include albumin, intravenous C, clotting factors, and special immunoglobulins. Due to the relatively mature end market of albumin, the growth rate is slightly lower. Static C, blood coagulation factors, and special immunity products will maintain a relatively high growth rate, and the market space is considerable. The growth rate of the blood products industry is expected to be 5%-10%.

   Several varieties of blood products with a higher growth rate are:

   Jing C: The second-largest blood product variety in the domestic market. Its indications include primary and secondary immunoglobulin deficiency and autoimmune diseases. Due to the high price and insufficient clinical promotion, the selection of disease types and the use of clinical departments in the country were limited before, and there is much room for expansion in the future. The current domestic price is about 60% of the foreign price, and there is a possibility of price increase. In the long run, with further clinical promotion, Jingbing will maintain a good growth rate.

   Blood coagulation factors: The main variety is coagulation factor Ⅷ for the treatment of hemophilia. It is estimated that there are 80,000 hemophilia patients in my country. Due to price reasons, only 40% of patients receive continuous treatment, and only the minimum medication standard is adopted. With the development of the economy and the possibility of further coverage by medical insurance in the future, factor Ⅷ is expected to usher in a rapid release period.

   Special immune products: including tetanus immune globulin, human rabies vaccine immune globulin, hepatitis B vaccine immune globulin, etc. These varieties have a small base and are expected to maintain a high growth rate.

  3) Biological drugs: Drugs ushered in a period of intensive marketing, and terminal growth accelerated

   The total market size of my country's biological drugs is estimated to be about 30 billion yuan. Biological drugs are the general direction of the future development of the pharmaceutical industry due to their good therapeutic effects and low side effects. In recent years, biologics accounted for more than half of the innovative drugs approved by the FDA for marketing in the United States, and new drugs approved for marketing in China are showing a similar trend. In 2018, the sales scale of biotechnology drugs in 600 sample hospitals was RMB 6.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. Most biopharmaceuticals are used in tumor treatment. With the continuous increase in the number of tumors, the market for biopharmaceuticals will continue to grow. The growth rate of the biopharmaceutical industry is expected to be around 20%